All past week, Western media has been buzzing with the news: massive protests in Russia! After reading articles in The New York Times, The Washington Posts, and other reputable newspapers, one may think that revolution is about to take place in Russia.

Now, how massive were these protests really? The number of people participating in Moscow rally last Saturday varied from 25,000 to 100,000. About 7,000 protesters assembled in St. Petersburg on the same day, and 3,000 in Tomsk. Dozens of smaller rallies took place across Russia. All in all, there could’ve been anywhere from 30,000 to 115,000 people rallying in Russia last Saturday.

Now, how important are these numbers? And how well do they represent political unrest in the country? To me, someone who is from the former USSR, these numbers are important on a very personal level. I was proud to see my former fellow countrymen taking to the streets and demanding for their voices to be heard. To the West, undoubtedly, the sight of “political awakening” in Russia is a sign of democracy they’ve longed to see since 1991. But how significant are these numbers to Russians?

One of the protesters in Moscow, a 26 year old real estate agent, pointed out, “You see all these people who are well dressed and earn a good salary, going out onto the streets on Saturday and saying, ‘No more.’ That’s when you know you need a change.” That’s when you also know that these people can “afford” to go to the streets and protest. They are the young professionals and students who are well aware of what goes on in the world. They are well educated people who can speak several languages and are proficient Internet users. They are also well traveled people who have seen what life is like in other parts of the world. Of course, there were other people in the crowds as well: workers, professionals, and retired people. However, the majority of protesters were young people.

The question that everyone is trying to answer now is what will happen next in Russia. I feel that mass media is playing with people’s minds again the way they did a few months ago trying to predict who Russia’s president would be in 2012. To me, someone who is not a political analyst or a political activist, the answer was clear from day one: Mr. Putin. To them, professional news reporters, political analysts, etc., the answer seemed to be impossible to know, or at least, they made it sound like it was. In any case, I feel like l am being tossed into the same media mind game again as every reputable publication seems to be obsessed with the “wind of change” in Russia. I personally don’t think that anything out of the ordinary will happen next, and here is why.

Most of the people who protested last week live in Moscow and St. Petersburg. These two cities, in my opinion, are poor representations of Russia as a whole. People who live in other Russian cities lead different life styles, earn less money, don’t wear well-known brands, don’t drive expensive cars, and don’t have sushi for lunch. That’s why, I don’t think I am mistaken when I say that most Russians are still concerned with their “daily bread” more than they are concerned with democracy. In light of recent events, an average Russian may even say there is too much democracy in Russia now.

Furthermore, Russian government still has a very strong grip on Russian mass media. Russian TV is dominated by channels that are either run directly by the state or owned by companies with close links to the Kremlin. The government controls Channel One and Russia One – two of the three main federal channels – while state-controlled energy giant Gazprom owns NTV. Last Saturday’s news episode is one of many examples as to how easily information is manipulated by the government funded channels. Needless to say, independent reporting continues to suffer in Russia.

Thus, in my opinion the opposition does not represent majority of Russians. I also don’t think that members of the opposition are strong enough to fight a powerful force behind United Russia. I believe that the current Russian government will continue to make light of the protests that took place last week knowing that it still holds a firm grip on power. My prediction is that Mr. Putin will become Russia’s president in 2012, and United Russia will remain a domineering political party in Russian parliament.

So, did the people in Russia protest in vain? Or will their voices be finally heard? I truly believe that if Russian people remain persistent in their opposition to the current ruling regime, if they continue to grow in numbers, if they elect strong leaders with a clear vision for the future of their country, they will eventually succeed. And maybe in several years, Russia will face a real change, if.

The image above is located at cryptome.org.